Will Laura Loomer’s terrorist attack prediction be correct?
GeopoliticsOne-OffCrime & JusticeMiddle EastSociety & Culture2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.5%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 53 minutes ago
LaggingMar 27, 26, 1:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 2:09 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Laura Loomer recently claimed that a “massive Islamic terror attack” could take place in the US and suggested it could be “10 times worse than 9/11”
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if a terrorist attack occurs in the United States that results in more than 29,770 deaths (10 times the 9/11 death toll of 2,977 people).
- The market resolves NO if no such attack occurs by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government casualty counts from federal agencies (FBI, DHS, or NIST) or major news organizations reporting confirmed death tolls.
- This market will resolve as YES even if Islam is revealed to have not actually been involved, but is blamed.
