Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.6%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 3:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, there is an official determination by the U.S. government—specifically the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security, or the Office of the Director of National Intelligence—that a fatal attack carried out on U.S. soil was planned, directed, or materially supported by the government of Iran or an Iranian state-backed entity.
- For the purposes of this market, "U.S. soil" is defined as the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. territories.
- If no such official determination is made, or if an attack occurs but is attributed solely to independent actors without proof of Iranian state sponsorship as defined above, the market will resolve to "No."
- The question of Iranian involvement in attacks on U.S. soil involves complex assessments by the U.S. intelligence community regarding the distinction between Iranian-backed proxy groups and direct operations by state security apparatuses, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
- The U.S. government has historically documented efforts by Iran to target dissidents and officials within the United States, often utilizing criminal networks or third-party actors.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Iran launch a fatal terrorist attack on U.S. soil by EOY 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria