Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?
GeopoliticsOne-OffHealth & Medicine6yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.6%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJun 27, 23, 3:10 PM UTCJan 1, 33, 5:00 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
The leading cause of death in the U.S. has been heart disease for many years, but the number of deaths from heart disease been declining faster relative to cancer.
- There is also the possibility of another, more deadly pandemic in the near future, and one also has to consider other possibilities such as a war with other nations.
- To be clear, I am including a mortality report for the year 2030 (this question includes the year 2030), and am considering the entire US population.
- Also, this question is about "the" leading cause of death, not "a" leading cause of death, so the question will only resolve YES if heart disease is no longer the top cause of death in the US for any of the years from 2022 up to and including 2030.
- It will resolve NO only if all mortality reports from 2022-2030 are released before the closing date and each has heart disease as the leading cause of death.
- If for some reason a mortality report is missing or is unavailable by the closing date, and no other authoritative, US governmental source is available to decide these criteria, the market will resolve N/A.
