What will be the leading cause of death in the USA in 2050?
Health & MedicineManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastHeart disease 29%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Jul 3, 23, 7:39 AM UTCDec 31, 51, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will heart disease no longer be the leading cause of death in the US in any year prior to 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the top 5 leading causes of Death in the USA at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be Trump's cause of death?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves based on most authoritative data, currently it would be this: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
- If USA ceases to exist or significantly changes area resolves based on data for the area of 2023 USA.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.2K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.1K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the leading cause of death in the USA in 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices Heart disease at 29% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does What will be the leading cause of death in the USA in 2050? resolve?
- What will be the leading cause of death in the USA in 2050? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2051.
- How is What will be the leading cause of death in the USA in 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on most authoritative data, currently it would be this: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm