Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 91.2%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMay 14, 24, 6:57 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will police in the usa kill more people in 2026 than in 2025?
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Manifold MarketsHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRules
2022 Data for comparison
- https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $23.2K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.1K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Total Vol
- $4.9K
- 24h Vol
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Cancer kill more people than Heart Disease in the USA in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Cancer kill more people than Heart Disease in the USA in 2026? resolve?
- Will Cancer kill more people than Heart Disease in the USA in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Cancer kill more people than Heart Disease in the USA in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: 2022 Data for comparison