Will any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
One-OffCrime & JusticeSociety & Culture3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 92.5%
No 92.5%Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Feb 13, 23, 8:48 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:
- Czech Republic
- United Kingdom
- United States
