Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 82.2%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 24, 3:26 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Doesn't necessarily have to kill anyone, but should have substantial shock value through destruction of property or similar (i.e. significantly above the current gluing-to-things protests).
- Shorter-term version:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Thomas42/will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-mo)Terrorism is notoriously ill-defined.
- For this market I define it as the intentional use of violence to achieve a political goal, in this case a goal related to climate change.
- So actually blowing up a refinery is violence and counts, but sabotaging by drilling a hole in a pipe is not.
