Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030?

Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030 resolve?

Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030 settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If there is a range of deaths going with the middle of the range

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 28+0.9pt100%
• October 31+1.6pt97%
• November 295%

+19 more outcomes

Total Vol

$29M

24h Vol

$865.9K

KALSHI

Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

• No one-4.0pt53.5%
• Benjamin Netanyahu+3.0pt28.5%
• Gadi Eizenkot+4.0pt

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31+2.5pt63%
• December 31+5.1pt40%
• November 30+8.0pt28%

+22 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

• No+0.3pt100%
• Yes-0.3pt0%

Total Vol

$4M

24h Vol

$477.2K

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 27+0.1pt100%
• October 2998%
• October 3098%

+39 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• No+1.0pt82.2%
• Yes-1.0pt17.8%

Total Vol

$75.8M

24h Vol

$190.5K

• Iran leadership change by which date?
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
• Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
• US-Iran nuclear deal?