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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

0.2% (24h)One-OffGeopolitics6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 3%
Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$448

Liquidity

$41.1K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

2.8% / 3.0%

Spread

7.1%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-1.1%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Nov 5, 25, 6:29 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes3%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.