Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
7.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 75.5%-7.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$525.8
Liquidity
$23.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
71.0% / 77.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Mar 25, 26, 2:00 PMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva74%
Volume trend
$526Jul 221d of dataJul 28
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If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Renan Santos wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Romeu Zema wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Fernando Haddad wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Ronaldo Caiado wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.