Brazil presidential election: first round winner?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 78.2%+4.0ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
76 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8.5K
Liquidity
$44.8K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Mar 25, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
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PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
PolymarketRules
If the named outcome wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — Will Brazil’s presidential election be decided in the first round? · No 84%
- Also available on Polymarket — Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner · Lula 77%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Brazil 2026 Election: Will the presidential election be decided in first round? · No 94%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazil presidential election: first round winner??
- Kalshi prices Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 78% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Brazil presidential election: first round winner? resolve?
- Brazil presidential election: first round winner? is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2027.
- How is Brazil presidential election: first round winner? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Brazil presidential election: first round winner? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Polymarket, Manifold Markets.