Will Brazil’s presidential election be decided in the first round?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America
FutuurClosedCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataThis market resolved: No (95%)
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 3:36 PM
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Data as of Oct 4, 2026, 1:29 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
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KalshiRules
This market predicts whether the 2026 Brazilian presidential election will be decided in the first round of voting scheduled for October 4, 2026.
- Under Brazilian electoral law, a candidate is elected President in the first round only if they receive more than 50% of the valid votes cast.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) for resolution will be the official election results published by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- If any candidate receives more than 50% of valid votes in the first round and is officially declared elected President by the TSE without a runoff election being required, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If official TSE publications are unavailable or unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from credible Brazilian and international news organizations.