Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 58%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 1:55 PMOct 4, 26, 10:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva58%
Also available on Kalshi
Brazil Presidential election winner?
3.0%1y
-3.0%61%
-0.3%9%
27%
+10 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.3M
24h Vol$5.2K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
3mo
+1.7%56.9%
25%
-0.8%11.1%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast26 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$28.4K
24h Vol$320.2
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Also available on Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election
3mo
-1.0%61%
+0.1%22%
+0.1%10%
+29 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$110M
24h Vol$308.1K
POLYMARKETRules
From Polymarket:
- A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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From Polymarket:
- A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
- This market includes any potential second round.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.