Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America14dFutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probabilityNo 88%
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$7.5K
Medium liquidityTraders
48
Comments
23
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Andrade Da Silva vs Covato
KalshiM15 Quito: Lucas Andrade Da Silva vs Matteo Covato
PolymarketBrazil presidential runoff: will Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro debate?
KalshiLula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by which date?
PolymarketLula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?
PolymarketWill Lula finish his term as President of Brazil?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve based on the official winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election as declared by Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), including any required second-round runoff.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) is the TSE's final official presidential result for the 2026 general election, as published on its official results portal (for example, via resultados.tse.jus.br) or in equivalent official communications.
- The market may resolve as soon as the TSE first publishes a definitive winner for the office of President for the 2027–2030 term.
- If the TSE declares Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the elected President of Brazil in this 2026 election (in either the first or second round), this market will resolve to "Yes".
- If the 2026 presidential election is held and another candidate is officially declared the elected President for this term, this market will resolve to "No".
- If the PDS result is significantly delayed, unclear, internally contradictory, formally annulled, or not published in its usual manner, Futuur will instead look to a clear consensus among at least three major, independent news organizations (for example, Agência Brasil, Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, or leading national Brazilian outlets) on who won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, treating that consensus as the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM).
