Will Lula finish his term as President of Brazil?
PoliticsOne-OffHealth & MedicineElectionLatin America2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 25, 23, 6:29 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurWill Lula finish his fourth term as President of Brasil?
Manifold MarketsWill Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?
Manifold MarketsWill the next President of Brazil's Senate be from the PL?
FutuurWho will publicly congratulate/acknowledge Lula as the winner of the Brazil election before the end of October?
Manifold MarketsRules
From Futuur:
- Luís Inácio Lula da Silva's term as President of Brazil covers 4 years beginning on [January] 1st, 2023, and ending on December 31st, 2026.
- If he does not finish his term – be it due to impeachment, disease, death, renouncing, having his mandate declared invalid by the judiciary authorities, or any other reason – this market will resolve to "No".
- If Congress passes an amendment to the constitution modifying the length of upcoming presidential terms, and that alters Lula's term as well, this market will be canceled and active wagers will be returned to their respective forecasters.
- [Fixed typo to correct month]
- This market will resolve to match Futuur's resolution.
