Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 1, 26, 1:38 AM UTCJan 4, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
KalshiTim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
LimitlessKathy Hochul to finish her term as governor of New York?
FutuurWill Tim Walz resign by which date?
PolymarketWill Lula finish his term as President of Brazil?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom complete his second term as governor of California?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves Yes if he is Governor through January 7th 2027.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tim Walz Finish his term as Governor of Minnesota??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tim Walz Finish his term as Governor of Minnesota? resolve?
- Will Tim Walz Finish his term as Governor of Minnesota? is scheduled to resolve on January 4, 2027.
- How is Will Tim Walz Finish his term as Governor of Minnesota? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if he is Governor through January 7th 2027.