Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 55%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 12, 26, 1:01 AM UTCOct 28, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
FutuurWill Lula be a candidate for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2026 Brazilian Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsW50 Evora: Valentina Ivanov vs Gabriella Da Silva Fick
PolymarketW50 Evora: Francisca Jorge vs Gabriella Da Silva Fick
PolymarketRules
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
- https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
- The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
- https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
- This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.
- Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? resolve?
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on October 28, 2026.
- How is Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here: