Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America
Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 26, 2026, 1:14 AM
Provider-verified resolution
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Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
- https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
- The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
- https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
- This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.
- Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
