Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America6d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 3:11 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 62.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
May 2, 24, 1:02 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The Brazilian municipal elections will take place in October 2024.
- A lot of attention is gathered around the São Paulo mayoral elections, as it is the biggest city in the country and can be a thermometer for the general public's political sentiment.
- Will the result of the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 presidential elections?
- The market resolves to YES if the results of both elections mimic each other, i.e., if a left-wing, right-wing, or centrist candidate is elected in both.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
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