Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 54.8%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 2, 24, 1:02 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The Brazilian municipal elections will take place in October 2024.
- A lot of attention is gathered around the São Paulo mayoral elections, as it is the biggest city in the country and can be a thermometer for the general public's political sentiment.
- Will the result of the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 presidential elections?
- The market resolves to YES if the results of both elections mimic each other, i.e., if a left-wing, right-wing, or centrist candidate is elected in both.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? resolve?
- Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Will the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Brazilian municipal elections will take place in October 2024.