Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in São Paulo
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America19d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Flavio Bolsonaro 96%
Flavio Bolsonaro 96%Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.7K
Liquidity
$23.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
94.8% / 98.0%
Spread
3.2 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 3:47 PM UTCOct 26, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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PolymarketWill the São Paulo mayoral elections be a good proxy for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next governor-elect of São Paulo in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 25, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from São Paulo.
- Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo.
- If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market.
- This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
- If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
