Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in São Paulo City
PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin America
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Lula
Resolved: Oct 26, 2026, 5:05 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Lula
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
74%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Flavio Bolsonaro8%
Lula100%
LulaWon
Flavio BolsonaroLost
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Manifold MarketsRules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election in the municipality of São Paulo (São Paulo state).
- Only valid votes cast at polling places in the municipality of São Paulo, as reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for that municipality, will count.
- Votes cast abroad will not count.
- Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in the municipality of São Paulo.
- If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market.
