Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028?
Latin AmericaOne-OffAITech1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.6%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJul 15, 26, 2:17 AM UTCJun 30, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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This market resolves YES if, before July 1, 2028 at 12:00 a.m. São Paulo time—meaning no later than June 30, 2028 at 11:59 p.m. BRT—at least one company offers an operational, on-demand, fully driverless passenger ride-hailing service within the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil.
- For a service to qualify, all of the following must be true:
- Available to the general public: Any ordinary eligible member of the public must be able to create an account and request a ride without needing a personal invitation, employment or affiliation with the operator, participation in a closed beta, or case-by-case approval.
- A normal app signup, identity verification, payment method, age requirement, terms of service, or brief generally applicable waitlist does not disqualify the service, provided access is being routinely granted and is not meaningfully restricted to a selected test group.
- On-demand taxi or ride-hailing service: Passengers must be able to request transportation between passenger-selected pickup and drop-off points within a defined service area.
- Fixed-route shuttles, buses, sightseeing circuits, airport people movers, and vehicles available only for demonstrations or prearranged test events do not qualify.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028? resolve?
- Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028? is scheduled to resolve on June 30, 2028.
- How is Will an ungated, fully driverless robotaxi service be available to the public in São Paulo before July 1, 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, before July 1, 2028 at 12:00 a.m. São Paulo time—meaning no later than June 30, 2028 at 11:59 p.m. BRT—at least one company offers an operational, on-demand, fully driverless passenger ride-hailing service within the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil.