Will Tesla run fully driverless robotaxis (no safety monitor) in 3+ US metros beyond Austin by Aug 1, 2027?
TechOne-Off9moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 98%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Aug 6, 26, 4:12 AM UTCAug 6, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, by August 1, 2027 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), Tesla is providing public robotaxi rides with no human safety monitor or driver present in the vehicle, in at least 3 distinct U.S. metropolitan areas other than Austin, TX (Austin already qualifies as of market creation, since Tesla operates unsupervised rides there).
- Requirements for a city to count: 1.
- Rides must have zero human safety monitor or driver physically present in the vehicle (a city where rides still require an in-car human monitor, such as the San Francisco Bay Area under current California law, does not count). 2.
- Service must be generally available to public riders, not an employee-only or invite-only internal pilot. 3.
- Confirmed via both Tesla official sources (earnings call, investor letter, or the Tesla robotaxi app city list) and independent reporting (for example Electrek, Teslarati, Reuters, or similar trade press).
- This market resolves NO if, as of August 1, 2027, fewer than 3 additional metro areas (beyond Austin) meet all three requirements above, including if expansion remains limited to supervised or monitored rides in those cities.
