JavaScript is disabled. Core navigation and editorial pages remain available, but live market widgets, charts, search, and personalization features may be limited.

Will Waymo and Uber die due to Tesla Robotaxi Service by 2028

ChainlinkOne-OffAI Tech1y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Tesla Robotaxi Dies 14.8%

Leader of 3 outcomes

Forecasters

24

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Jun 23, 25, 5:46 PMJan 1, 28, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice

Selected outcome

Waymo Dies3%

Stake (USDT)

Rules

https://x.com/powerbottomdad1/status/1936912446285050355

Will Powerbottom Dad's prediction that Waymo, and Uber, will die due to the popularity of Tesla Robotaxi or the combination of suboptimal technology and the high CapEx required for their own service come true in the next few years?
Will resolve based on evidence that Tesla's service was a chief factor, or at least that the prediction is directionally true and the CapEx of Waymo has been proven to be unsustainable.
I suspect this will generate some healthy debate in the comments, and that eventually we may desire to have polls.
Bonus market for the inversion that actually Robotaxis die
[link preview]

Volume trend

$40

Jul 262d of dataJul 27

Related Markets

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

Which of Ars Technica's Starship timeline predictions will be accurate?

In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025: 100%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How far will my tech startup NiceGit progress by July 2026?

How far will my tech startup NiceGit progress by July 2026?

Beta launch with >100 non-paying users: 72%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Manifold Markets

Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Safe Superintelligence / SSI: 17%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?

Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?

Bitcoin (BTC): 13%

What price will Chainlink hit in July?

What price will Chainlink hit in July?

What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?

What price will Chainlink hit in 2026?

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$63,294.05-3.10%

SolanaSOL$73.23-4.10%

EthereumETH$1,879.79-3.83%

BNBBNB$565.43-1.46%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0701-3.82%

XRPXRP$1.06-4.58%

Related News

Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter

Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt

Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt

WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter

Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph

DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News

Rules

https://x.com/powerbottomdad1/status/1936912446285050355

Will Powerbottom Dad's prediction that Waymo, and Uber, will die due to the popularity of Tesla Robotaxi or the combination of suboptimal technology and the high CapEx required for their own service come true in the next few years?
Will resolve based on evidence that Tesla's service was a chief factor, or at least that the prediction is directionally true and the CapEx of Waymo has been proven to be unsustainable.
I suspect this will generate some healthy debate in the comments, and that eventually we may desire to have polls.
Bonus market for the inversion that actually Robotaxis die
[link preview]