Current community forecast
No 97.7%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 20, 26, 10:29 PM UTCApr 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any candidate in the 2027 French presidential election (or a snap presidential election, if one is triggered earlier) wins an absolute majority of the votes cast (more than 50%) in the first round, thereby winning the presidency outright without the need for a runoff.
- This market will resolve to NO if no candidate secures more than 50% of the cast votes in the first round, resulting in a second-round runoff between the top two candidates.
- Sources of Truth:
- Official election data published by the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l'Intérieur): https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/
- Official proclamations by the Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel): https://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/