KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 6%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2
Liquidity
$21
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 10.0%
Spread
900.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Apr 23, 26, 4:00 AMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%
Also available on Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
1.9%3mo
50%
17%
14%
+29 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$320.9K
24h Vol$114.3
POLYMARKETRules
If Aldo Rebelo finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
- In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities).
- Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If Aldo Rebelo finishes in 3rd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage For ranked choice voting: rank is determined by elimination order (runner-up is eliminated in final round for second place) For two-round systems: rank is based on final round results if it proceeds to second round, otherwise first-round totals For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order
- In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities).
- Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists.
- Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received.
- If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO.