FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probabilityRepublican Party 62%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold Markets2026 Iowa Senate Race
Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
This event concerns which political party will win the United States Senate election in the state of Iowa, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- Each of the markets below covers one party; exactly one will resolve "Yes".
- The market corresponding to the party of the candidate who is officially elected to the U.S. Senate seat from Iowa will resolve to "Yes".
- A candidate will be considered affiliated with a political party based on their official ballot-listed party designation.
- If the officially elected candidate's ballot-listed designation is not one of the parties listed below, all listed markets resolve "No".
- The winner is the candidate who receives the most votes (plurality); Iowa does not hold runoff elections.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Which Party will win the 2026 Senate Election in Iowa · Republicans 56%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2026 Iowa Senate Race · Republican 58%
- Also available on Kalshi — Iowa Senate winner? (Person) · Ashley Hinson 58%
- Also available on Gemini — Iowa US Senate Winner · Ashley Hinson 60%
- Also available on Polymarket — Iowa Senate Election Winner · Ashley Hinson (R) 58%
- Also available on Smarkets — Iowa Senate Election Winner · Republican 52%
