PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Dems win Gov, Reps 47.4%+1.0ptLeader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$60
Liquidity
$21.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
+11.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 3:06 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsIf Josh Turek is the Democratic nominee, will he win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIowa's Senate election winner
FutuurRules
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Iowa that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party.
- Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
- If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
- For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
