How many Senate and Governor races will Republicans win in Harris states?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionLatin America2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
2 37.1%Leader of 7 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
2 37.1%Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$63
Open interest
$14.3K
Medium open interestSpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 11:00 PM UTCDec 15, 26, 2:59 PM UTC
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Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketWill Brazil 2026 election have the same outcome as the US 2024 election?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying jurisdictions are the 19 states that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington. The District of Columbia, which Harris also carried, is excluded from this list because it is not a state and holds no U.S. Senate or gubernatorial election, so its inclusion or exclusion cannot change the count. The count is the number of the 27 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) and 2026 gubernatorial general elections held in those 19 states, as fixed at Issuance, that are won by a nominee of the Republican Party. A candidate who wins as an independent, or under a fusion, minor-party, or write-in line without being the Republican Party's own nominee, does NOT count, even if no Republican nominee appeared on the ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs.
Rules for each outcome
- 2
- If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 3
- If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1
- If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 4
- If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 0
- If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 0 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 5
- If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is exactly 5 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 6
- If the number of 2026 U.S. Senate (including special elections) and gubernatorial general elections, held in the 19 states that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election, won by a nominee of the Republican Party is at least 6 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.