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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?

1.5% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection4mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 71%-0.0%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$243.7

Liquidity

$1.2K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

68.0% / 73.0%

Spread

7.3%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-6.5%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

May 27, 26, 3:33 PMNov 3, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes71%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
  • If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
  • For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
  • No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • This market will resolve based on the results of all elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
  • If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
  • For purposes of this market, the relevant states won by Donald Trump in 2024 but not in 2020 are Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.
  • No other states will be considered for purposes of this market, and no disputes of any state result from 2020 or 2024 will be considered relevant.