SmarketsClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredLimited verified dataThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current implied probabilityRepublican 57.4%
Market quality
15 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 34 days ago
StaleTrends
57.4%
42.6%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Named U.S.
- A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question.
- Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
- Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Iowa Senate winner? · Ashley Hinson 66%
- Also available on Polymarket — Iowa Senate Election Winner · Ashley Hinson (R) 65%
- Also available on Futuur — Iowa's Senate election winner · Republican Party 61%
- Also available on Smarkets — Iowa Senate Election Winner · Republican 64%
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+2.5pt38.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.4M
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+8.2pt54%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-9.0pt44%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt2%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.3%
- Gavin Newsom14.3%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1M
KALSHIMaine Senate winner?
- Troy Jackson67.3%
- Susan Collins32.7%
- Total Vol
- $5.3M
- 24h Vol
- $588.1K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt85.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.8%
- Total Vol
- $29.6M
- 24h Vol
- $446.8K
KALSHIOhio Senate winner?
- Sherrod Brown-2.0pt51.5%
- Jon Husted+1.0pt48.5%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $416.5K
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- Iowa Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- TX-15 House winner?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Iowa Senate Election Winner?
- Smarkets prices Republican at 57% as of August 7, 2026.
- How is Iowa Senate Election Winner settled?
- Smarkets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Named U.S.
- Where else is Iowa Senate Election Winner listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Futuur, Smarkets.