- First to get on Discord
Manifold Markets · Winner: Ale · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Fable 5.1 VS Astra: Which will I find better?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Astra · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Impala Canada to accelerate shutdown in 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- When will Oura Ring 5 be announced?
Manifold Markets · Winner: H1 2026 · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will Romania's S&P credit rating remain at "investment grade" level?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Clarity Act will pass in September
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Largest company end of September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: NVIDIA · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- 2nd largest company end of September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Apple · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- 3rd largest company end of September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Alphabet (Google) · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- DOGE cuts $1T federal deficit by FY 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will an AI get bronze or silver (but not gold) on any International Math Olympiad by end of 2025?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will Barton Rhodes get a girlfriend by EOY 2027?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Israel VS Ireland | UEFA Nations League | 27 September 2026 | Who will win?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Ireland · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will Tesla announce on October 1, 2026 that the new Roadster can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in under 1 second?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will my passport be okay?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Who will win season 0 of Telarchy tournament?
Manifold Markets · Winner: vi0 · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Metaculus]
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Who will be the most streamed artist on Spotify this week?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Taylor Swift · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will i reach 111 000 mana netwoth in 2026,in 2 october, at 17:03 at estonias time
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will Python 3.10 reach 90% readiness before end of life?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will the age 25-29 employment rate for Sept. 2026 stay below 77.9%?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will there be two or more upsets in the Wildcard Round of the '26 MLB Postseason?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will the Kansas City Royals win more than 82.5 games this season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will I get demoted to Bronze in Season 41?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- US announces another drawdown of Strategic Petroleum Reserve before October 1st
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will a drone swarm cause havoc in a major city by 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will any mobile game reach a player count of 700 million players before 2027, according to Wikipedia's list?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will Supergirl (2026) make twice its budget according to wikipedia?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Bitcoin $86,000.00 before EOD October 4 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- NFL Week 4: Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Cleveland Browns by 3 or more points on Thursday Night Football?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- California Prop 50 map used in 2026 election?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- US airstrikes Yemen in September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Who will win Big Brother 28?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Devens · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will I shoot under 40 tomorrow for golf
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Which Frontier AI Lab will hold the #1 spot on Chatbot Arena on October 1?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Google · Resolved Oct 2, 2026
- Will 5 or more people comment here that they know how to speak Toki Pona?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will this MARKET have UNDER 100 TRADERS by the end of September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- When will my Manifold networth pass 10k?
Manifold Markets · Winner: October 2026 · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will I be offered a quant role before 2030? [read desc]
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Kyiv remain in the 10 least livable cities in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Brazilian Youtuber Lito (Aviões e Músicas/Airplanes and Songs) defeat the disgraceful disease of Creutzfeldt-Jakob?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will I stay in masters this season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Germany defeat Serbia ?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Denmark defeat Portugal ?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Azerbaijan defeat Liechtenstein ?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Which Erdos Problems will be solved before October 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: #571 — Which Turán exponents exist? · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- The shame market: Who will be the worst bot in Season 41?
Manifold Markets · Winner: @TenShinoBot · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Who will win the Masters League in Season 41?
Manifold Markets · Winner: @Jack1 · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- The Shame Market: Who will finish last in the Masters League in Season 41?
Manifold Markets · Winner: @DottedCalculator · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Did OpenAI just solve hodge??
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will leagues end in the first half or second half of the possible hours?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Second half (12h to 23h 59m · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will I stay in masters this season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Muse rank #1 in App Store (iPhone) on October 1st 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on October 1st, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- What will happen in Russia around elections of 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: United Russia officially gets absolute majority (>310/450) · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Brent crude settle at or above $100 on September 30, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Which Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Below 4.6 million km² · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: Anthropic · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the address for math.eg.rego.re receive more than $50 before Oct 1 UTC-12?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will I beat phjork before the end of this month(current hardest shiver)
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Kristi Noem announce she is divorcing her spouse, or will a divorce action be formally filed during the rest of '26
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Opus 5.5 get nerfed within a week of launch?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the NFL officially announce the 2027 Super Bowl halftime show headliner before the end of September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Mod queue empty by end Sept?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Current mod loses role by end Sept?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Elon Musk and Donald Trump appear together in the same new photo or video on X before October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Google model beats Anthropic on LMArena by EOY26
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will construction of Trump's triumphal arch begin before the end of September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will I increase my net worth to over 1000 mana in September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will my YouTube Channel have 30 subscribers before the end of September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will I get called "sir" more than "ma'am" over the phone in September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- US Average Gas Price Is $4.000 or more on October 1st 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 55 or higher on September 30, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will a new Claude Haiku model be released in September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will 6 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Manifold post another investor update before a full year has passed?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 form before October 1?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the White House name a new Press Secretary (permanent, acting, or interim) by September 30, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 40 kt on August 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Jinbaobao's tin production fall below 60 kt on August 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- MLB: Will either the Padres or the Cubs sweep their 2026 NL Wild Card series (2–0)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will bitcoin go below 9.000$ at the end of this month?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Trump and Xi meet in September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Bitcoin $87,500 in September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will someone confuse me (Jacob Cohen) with Jacob Coxon during the month of September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will it snow in september in estonia?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- How many markets will @ManifoldPolitics create in September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: 0 · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Manifold Liquidity work properly before end of sep 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Justin Sun launch a Jing Tian-related token by the end of September 30, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- MLB: Will either the Red Sox or the Yankees sweep their 2026 AL Wild Card series (2–0)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Trump die in september?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the RMs get their merch before September 30th?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Escalation of conflict in the Middle East before October?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of September? [Polymarket]
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- What day will tryouts come out?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Sep 30 2026 · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will The Odyssey have a higher domestic PTA than Spider-Man on every remaining Tuesday in September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will deepseek v5 release in september 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Manifold have a mana purchase goal meter?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- MLB: Will either the White Sox or the Astros sweep their 2026 AL Wild Card series (2–0)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Which of these rare events will happen in the 2026 Major League Baseball season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Player pitches an immaculate inning · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- SpaceX closes above $170 at end of month?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- September 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props (add options)
Manifold Markets · Winner: The US and China announce a new bilateral mechanism for managing AI risks · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the month
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before October
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the US and China announce an AI incident notification mechanism at the Trump–Xi summit?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Romania have a new Government by the end of September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the price of ICP hit $5 by Oct1
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will U.S. regular gasoline fall below $3.75/gal in any EIA weekly report before October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will WTI crude oil close at or below $65 before October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the LBMA Silver Price fix at or above $80/oz on any day in September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will the closing price of silver exceed $65 at the end of September, 2026 based on the SI=F ticker on Yahoo Finance
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Oct 1, 2026
- Will Prox2 Return Before End of October 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- MLB: Will either the Braves or the Phillies sweep their 2026 NL Wild Card series (2–0)?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will Rust be ranked in the top 10 programming languages by the year 2030? 🦀🚀
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- When will Splatoon Raiders' release date be?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Q3 2026 · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will Novig become a unicorn by EOY?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will the Yankees finish first in the AL East in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- US Average Gas Price Is $4.600 or more on any day in September 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- What Position will the 10th Death on the DeathList 2026 be?
Manifold Markets · Winner: 1-9 · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will the UAE lift its blanket trade suspension with Iran before October 1, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will Alibaba close at or above HK$123 on September 30, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will New Zealand's Online Safety Bill receive a first-reading vote before October 1?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will Any Top-8 Economy See Its Birthrate Rise 5% from Its Lowest post-2015 Point by 2025?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will the 2026 DeathList end with a final score of 9?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- 🐻 Who will be the CHUBBIEST CHONKER of Fat Bear Week 2026? 🐻
Manifold Markets · Winner: 89 "Backpack" · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Who will be the next leader of the Australian Greens?
Manifold Markets · Winner: David Shoebridge · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- How many successful SpaceX launches in September 2026 UTC
Manifold Markets · Winner: 8 or fewer · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- What will happen next in the Lindsay Clancy case by September 29, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: ⏳ None of the above by September 29 · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will CO2 pass a daily average of 432.55 ppm at Mauna Loa on any day in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will John Green's next book be fiction?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Daily Coinflip
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- I will be able to purchase an Apple folding phone at an Apple store before September 30, 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will I weigh >150lbs at the end of September?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will Israel's judicial selection committee be reformed during the current Knesset term?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 before January 1,2027?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- What will be my league result?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Promoting to Platinum · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- NFTBucks
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- NFTbucks
Manifold Markets · Winner: Buy in · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- Will any game during Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season end in a scorigami?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 30, 2026
- In part 99 of the "Eating at every chinese buffet until i get food poisoning", did mullet_review get Food Poisoning?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- will my friend get 100% on her ap art history test?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Successful Starship splashdowns before orbital launch attempt?
Manifold Markets · Winner: 7 · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ...?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Q2 2026 (April 1 - June 30, 2026) · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5.5 by October 15, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Will the US 10-year Treasury yield close at 5.25% or higher before November 16, 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Can I Beat minecraft in this month With Hot potato?(manifolder)
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Will Trump ban stock buybacks/dividends for defense contractors?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Which team will Malik Willis be on in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL Season?
Manifold Markets · Winner: Miami Dolphins · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Twitter feature: can adjust image order on the website on PC, by mid 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- OpenAI images have a useful and hard to remove watermark, by mid 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Will Notepad++ ever offer a feature where you can search among all options by text? by mid 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Chinese go/baduk/weiqi player is proven to be cheating in live event by mid 2026
Manifold Markets · Winner: Yes · Resolved Sep 29, 2026
- Will Aella write a fiction story of at least 5000 words, available online, by mid 2026?
Manifold Markets · Winner: No · Resolved Sep 29, 2026