Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.1%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Oct 26, 26, 3:22 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if the US National Hurricane Center names a new tropical or subtropical storm in the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of America) between the creation of this market and 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2026.
- Since Josephine was the season's tenth named storm, the next name on the list is Kyle.
- What counts: the NHC issues an advisory with the system at tropical-storm or subtropical-storm strength (39 mph / 34 kt or more) and gives it a name, with that first named advisory dated on or before November 30 (UTC).
- A tropical depression that never gets named does not count.
- Eastern and Central Pacific storms do not count.
- Source: NHC advisories and the active-storms list at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (archive: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/).
