Current community forecast
10 19.3%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+8.2 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleOct 26, 26, 9:40 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page. https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?q=&f=agency_1&tab=
- for November 2026, UTC time.
- If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.
- A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.
- Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.
- (Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated.
