Current community forecast
Yes 98.5%
Yes 98.5%Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 26, 12:01 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- A general election will be held in Spain no later than Sunday, 22 August 2027, to elect the members of the 16th Cortes Generales.
- This market resolves YES if a national general election to elect a new prime minister occurs at any point during 2026.
- It resolves NO if no such election takes place in 2026 (with the scheduled 2027 election occurring instead).
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Spanish government or the Spanish Electoral Commission (Junta Electoral Central).
- The election must be a general election for the Congress of Deputies and Senate, not regional elections.
