Current community forecast
Christopher Luxon 54.1%-1.9ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+20.8 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oct 31, 26, 9:45 AM UTCNov 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
- This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections.
- To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
- Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
- This market will also resolve to other if any PM other than Luxon or Hipkins is chosen.
