Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 17, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastBenjamin Netanyahu 18.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 days ago
StaleJul 15, 26, 6:59 PMDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Benjamin Netanyahu18%
Compare venues· Gadi Eizenkot
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall97% match · auto | Medium | 52% | — | $516.6K | $2.2M | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi83% match · linked | Medium | 52% | — | $2.3K | $40.3K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur68% match · linked | Low | 53% | — | $0 | $3.5K | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless90% match · linked | Low | 52% | — | $0 | $0 | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets90% match · linked | — | 46% | — | — | — | 35 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 51% | — | — | — | 8 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 48% | — | — | — | 8 days ago | |
 PredictIt69% match · linked | — | 42% | — | — | — | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
5mo
+3.5%52%
-3.0%34%
7%
+25 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$29.6M
24h Vol$516.6K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3y
46%
23.7%
17.4%
+13 more outcomes
Community forecast49 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after next election?
1y
52%
50%
50%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.7K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
2.0%1y
+4.0%52%
-2.0%33%
-2.0%10%
+15 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$70.8K
24h Vol$2.3K
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be the Israeli PM after the next election?
3mo
+8.1%51.2%
-0.5%37.5%
-7.6%7.7%
+10 more outcomes
Community forecast100 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on PredictIt
Who will be the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
9.0%3y
-9.0%42%
16%
-3.0%9%
+6 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
PREDICTITAlso available on Futuur
Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election
3mo
53%
37%
9%
44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1K
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand).
- "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset.
- In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner.
- Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe.
- A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.2k66.0%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoGeoStrategistPro5h ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoGeoStrategistPro5h ago$11.4k99.4%POLYMARKETWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE3620h ago
POLYMARKETWill Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE3620h ago$6.3k62.0%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Noflawfence3d ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Noflawfence3d ago$11.0k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE366d ago
POLYMARKETWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoALONE366d ago$1.1k99.6%POLYMARKETWill Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Nohklcrypt8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — Nohklcrypt8d ago$6.6k32.2%POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — YesFussy-Countryside8d ago
POLYMARKETWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — YesFussy-Countryside8d ago$5.2k99.8%POLYMARKETWill Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — No0xe5da…03a111d ago
POLYMARKETWill Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — No0xe5da…03a111d ago$1.0k99.7%POLYMARKETWill Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoCarpenter13d ago
POLYMARKETWill Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? — NoCarpenter13d agoVolume trend
$451Jul 153d of dataJul 17
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand).
- "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset.
- In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner.
- Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe.
- A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term.