Israel election: Who will be the next prime minister?
2.5 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionMiddle East3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGadi Eizenkot 44%+2.5ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.4 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 15, 26, 6:59 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially sworn in as the Prime Minister of Israel by the Knesset following the next legislative election (scheduled for October 27, 2026, or sooner if a snap election is triggered beforehand).
- "Sworn In" Definition: The resolution will be determined by the first person who successfully forms a government and takes the oath of office in the Knesset.
- In the event of a rotational premiership agreement, the individual who serves as Prime Minister first will be the resolving winner.
- Hung Knesset: This option will resolve to YES if the Knesset elected in the next election fails to form a governing coalition within the legally mandated timeframe.
- A caretaker Prime Minister continuing to serve in an interim capacity during this political deadlock does not count as being sworn in for a new term.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Gemini — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Gadi Eizenkot 60%
- Also available on Kalshi — Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? · Gadi Eizenkot 61%
- Also available on Futuur — Israel’s next prime minister after the 2026 election · Gadi Eisenkot 60%
- Also available on Limitless — Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after next election? · Gadi Eizenkot 58%
- Also available on Polymarket — Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? · Gadi Eizenkot 59%
