Current community forecast
No 75%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 20, 26, 10:07 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lionel Messi publicly claim Lamine Yamal is his son by end of Dec 31, 2026? (jokes count)
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiWill there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-11-30 23:59 UTC, OpenAI - via an official OpenAI channel (openai.com blog/research page, the @OpenAI account, or a named OpenAI executive or researcher speaking officially) - publicly announces that OpenAI has solved any of these five Millennium Prize Problems: - Riemann Hypothesis - P versus NP - Yang-Mills existence and mass gap - Hodge Conjecture - Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture The Navier-Stokes problem does NOT qualify.
- OpenAI already announced a claimed Navier-Stokes result on 2026-09-08 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/); this market is about a SECOND, different problem.
- The announcement must be a claim of a COMPLETE solution or proof, credited to OpenAI's own work. "Substantial progress", an improved bound, a partial result, a solved special case, or a solution to a weakened/modified version does NOT count.
- Clay Mathematics Institute verification is NOT required - a credible public claim by OpenAI is sufficient.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Resolution sources, in order: official OpenAI channels (openai.com, @OpenAI); if the status of a claim is ambiguous, corroborating reporting consensus from Reuters, Nature, Science, Quanta Magazine, or the Associated Press.