KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2028 60%+9.0pt
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.2K
Liquidity
$7K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
24.0% / 28.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 8, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketMillennium: Prize Problem solution published before 2028 and verified?
Manifold MarketsRules
If OpenAI announces a complete solution developed by OpenAI or researchers collaborating directly with OpenAI on that solution to one of the five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems (Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, Hodge, P versus NP, Riemann, or Yang-Mills), excluding the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:OpenAI
- The qualifying announcement must expressly state that OpenAI developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with OpenAI on developing that solution.
- The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem.
- The Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture do NOT count.
- Work by an independent ChatGPT user does NOT count, even if OpenAI publicizes it.
- Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution.
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt55.9%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.5%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.6K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2028 at 60% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? resolve?
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If OpenAI announces a complete solution developed by OpenAI or researchers collaborating directly with OpenAI on that solution to one of the five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems (Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, Hodge, P versus NP, Riemann, or Yang-Mills), excluding the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.