Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 22, 2026, 10:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastNo 78.5%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 days ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 10:25 PMNov 19, 26, 10:24 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes22%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall95% match · verified | Medium | 91% | — | $1.7K | $14.1K | 10 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 79% | — | — | — | 4 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
0.5 pts3mo
+0.0pt90.1%
9.9%
73 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$591.3K
24h Vol$1.7K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$45Jul 212d of dataJul 22
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.