Will there be a significant polling error at the 2026 US midterm elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.9%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingNov 19, 25, 1:48 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if there is a difference of three percentage points or more between the final 'RCP Average' polling margin and the national popular vote margin at the 2026 elections for the United States House of Representatives.
- Clarifications
- The 'RCP Average' polling margin will be supplied by the 2026 Generic Congressional Vote page on the RealClearPolling website (see the 'spread' column).
- The national popular vote margin is the margin (in percentage points) between the Democratic and Republican parties.
- A difference of 'three percentage points or more' must not be a difference that merely rounds up to three percentage points.
