Current community forecast
No 76.8%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 4:49 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.
Open markets
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- 24h Vol
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+16 more outcomes
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- J.D. Vance50%
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+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? resolve?
- Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.