Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling??

Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? resolve?

Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.

How is Will there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I will average the FiftyPlusOne, Silver Bulletin and RealClearPolitics averages and compare them against the national generic congressional vote, excluding districts where one candidate was running unopposed.

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POLYMARKET

Which party will win the House in 2026?

• Democratic Party+1.0pt92.1%
• Republican Party-1.0pt7.9%

Total Vol

$23.2M

24h Vol

$1.9M

KALSHI

Which party will win the U.S. House?

• Democratic Party90.4%
• Republican Party9.6%

Total Vol

$71.5M

24h Vol

$1.9M

KALSHI

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

• Democrats sweep-1.0pt63.5%
• D-House, R-Senate+2.0pt26.5%
• Republicans sweep

KALSHI

Texas Senate winner?

• James Talarico64.5%
• Ken Paxton-1.0pt35.5%

Total Vol

$42.4M

24h Vol

$1.3M

POLYMARKET

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

• Gadi Eizenkot+0.3pt54.7%
• Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt28.4%
• Naftali Bennett-1.0pt13.7%

POLYMARKET

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

• Yashar-1.5pt69.3%
• Likud+2.0pt30.7%
• Otzma Yehudit0%

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