Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 3, 2026, 11:43 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastHigher than R+10.0 1.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 days ago
StaleJan 23, 26, 5:33 AMNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Higher than R+10.02%
Related Markets
Florida Republican Governor nominee?
$114.4KJames Fishback: 4%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Which party will win the U.S. House?
$30.8KRepublican Party: 19%KALSHI
KALSHI
NM-02 House Election Winner
$8.4KDemocratic Party: 87%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Arizona Republican Governor nominee?
$7.3KChristopher Ames: 2%KALSHI
KALSHI
TX-36 House Election Winner
$5.1KRepublican Party: 93%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
CA-42 House Election Winner
$2.5KDemocratic Party: 94%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Colorado Dem upset jolts 2028 chatter as Polymarket puts Newsom at 20.5%Blockchain.News
Colorado primary surprise as Polymarket keeps Maduro favored at 80%Blockchain.News
Ripple-backed PACs fuel record $189M crypto election spendingCrypto News
Eizenkot kicks off election bid as Polymarket puts him at 40% to lead IsraelBlockchain.News
Supreme Court blow to Trump knocks Newsom to 20.5% on PolymarketBlockchain.News
After SCOTUS mail vote loss, Trump pushes SAVE Act as Vance holds 19.4%Blockchain.NewsRules
What will the generic ballot be on election day 2026, per Silver Bulletin/Nate Silver?
- [image]As of 2025-01-22, the current result would be D+5.3.
- Resolves based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls as of 00:00 Eastern Time on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, or preferably a specific number reported by Silver Bulletin as the election day generic ballot.
- Based on the "Net Support" metric.