What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
8.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastD+5.1 - D+10.0 62.7%+8.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+6.8 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jan 23, 26, 5:33 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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What will the generic ballot be on election day 2026, per Silver Bulletin/Nate Silver?
- [image]As of 2025-01-22, the current result would be D+5.3.
- Resolves based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls as of 00:00 Eastern Time on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, or preferably a specific number reported by Silver Bulletin as the election day generic ballot.
- Based on the "Net Support" metric.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices D+5.1 - D+10.0 at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026? resolve?
- What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: What will the generic ballot be on election day 2026, per Silver Bulletin/Nate Silver?