What will be the generic ballot on election day 2026?
One-OffPoliticsElectionUS Politics2026 US Midterms10d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 7:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastD+5.1 - D+10.0 54.7%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+7.5 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 23, 26, 5:33 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
What will the generic ballot be on election day 2026, per Silver Bulletin/Nate Silver?
- [image]As of 2025-01-22, the current result would be D+5.3.
- Resolves based on https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls as of 00:00 Eastern Time on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, or preferably a specific number reported by Silver Bulletin as the election day generic ballot.
- Based on the "Net Support" metric.
