Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House through the 2026 US Midterm elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection7d
FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
Yes 89%
Yes 89%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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$1.5K
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market aims to predict whether Mike Johnson will continue to serve as the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives through 23:59 ET on the day of the 2026 U.S. congressional elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
- If Johnson ceases to hold the position for any reason before this date — including (but not restricted to) resignation, removal, replacement through a House vote, or departure from Congress — this market will resolve to "No."
- Verification will rely on official records from the US House of Representatives, announcements from the Speaker’s office, and reputable media sources.
- Temporary absences, such as medical leave or interim delegation of duties, will not affect the market’s resolution unless they result in Johnson permanently losing the Speakership.
- If the House votes in favor of replacing Johnson as Speaker before the 2026 elections, the market will resolve as "No", even if he remains in Congress.
