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  3. What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

PoliticsCommoditiesAI5mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Maine
Maine 15.5%
Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters

17

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Dec 2, 24, 1:11 AMDec 6, 26, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Maine16%

Rules

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!

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Rules

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!