What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US MidtermsAICommodities1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Texas 13.4%Leader of 16 outcomes
Texas 13.4%Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 2, 24, 1:11 AM UTCDec 6, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.
- If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
- For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
- If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
- Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
- Feel free to add more states you think could be it!
