What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Ohio 16.2%Leader of 16 outcomes
Forecasters
18
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 2, 24, 1:11 AM UTCDec 6, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PredictItDemocratic Senate Seat Count (2028)
KalshiRules
If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.
- If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
- For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
- If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
- Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
- Feel free to add more states you think could be it!
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections??
- Manifold Markets prices Ohio at 16% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections? resolve?
- What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections? is scheduled to resolve on December 6, 2026.
- How is What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.