Which 2026 race will be the tipping point for Senate control?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1y
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Michigan 32%Leader of 5 outcomes
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Sep 3, 26, 2:31 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the 2026 Senate election that serves as the "tipping point" for control following the 2026 midterm election.
- The tipping point state shall be determined by ranking all 2026 Senate elections by their margins of victory and identifying the contest that secures the 50th seat to be held by Republicans or the 51st seat to be held by Democrats, following the 2026 midterm elections.
The number of seats that a party holds following the 2026 midterm elections will be the sum of the following: i) the number of U.S. Senate seats won in the 2026 midterm elections by candidates with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable affiliation for that party, and ii) the number of incumbent Senate seats not subject to re-election or special election in 2026 held by members of that party's caucus. - In the event that a Senate seat is vacant but an election will not be held in the 2026 midterm elections, that seat will be considered to be held by the party associated with the seat's most recent incumbent.
Should a state reallocate votes under a ranked-choice voting system, the prevailing margin of victory shall reflect the popular vote count of the last reported round. - Should any election go to a second round, this market shall be resolved according to the results from that second round.
All listed contracts refer to regularly scheduled general election races.
The margin of victory shall be calculated by using the difference between the percentage of votes for the first place winner and the percentage of votes for the second place winner. - Percentages of the popular vote shall be determined by dividing the number of votes won by each candidate over the total of votes for all ballot-listed candidates and write-ins officially reported.
- In a ranked-choice election, only votes that are active in the last round reported shall be considered.
Should the most specific data available indicate a tie between two or more contests, this market will resolve in favor of the first alphabetical state among those so tied.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled.
