Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 1:58 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastWet weather // D wins by 0%-2% margin 15.6%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 26, 2:13 AM UTCNov 2, 28, 1:02 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market asks two questions: What the Republican/Democrat margin of victory will be in the tipping point state for the 2028 US POTUS election, and whether the weather will be wet in the state on election day.
- The criteria for what counts as rainy weather will be:
- Look at the top 5 cities in the state by population
- Check if it precipitated in those cities according to the citywide weather icon for election day on Weather Underground
- Is the answer is "yes" for most of the people in those cities?
