Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOhio 12.9%Leader of 15 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJul 2, 26, 9:01 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Tipping point state vote margin for Dem Senate majority in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
Manifold MarketsHow will AI voting advice rates compare to the Senate tipping point margin in 2026?
Manifold MarketsMarginal weather in the tipping point state
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the U.S. state that is determined to be the "tipping-point contest" for control of the Senate following the 2026 midterm elections.
- The "tipping-point contest" will be defined as the 2026 Senate contest that gives the 19th-best margin to Republicans and 17th-best margin to Democrats out of the 35 seats up for election in 2026 (the 33 Class II seats and 2) BY TWO-PARTY VOTE SHARE, because this would give Democrats their 51st seat (counting Angus King and Bernie Sanders) or Republicans their 50th needed for Senate control.
- In Nebraska, Dan Osborn will be considered the Democratic candidate for this market.
- In Montana, if both Seth Bodnar and Alani Bankhead (or a different person on the Democratic line) are on the ballot, whichever of the two receives more votes will be considered the Democratic candidate.
- Close date is indicative only.
- This market will close whenever results are officially finalized in all states that could reasonably be the tipping-point contest by the relevant election authorities.