How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be?
Corporate ActionsAIOne-OffBusiness & CorporateTech1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast4.5 months to 8.5 months 34.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
6
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleApr 27, 26, 2:03 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 3:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
After companies IPO, they typically have lock-up periods during which employees can't sell their stock.
- These lock-up periods are typically 3 or 6 months, though longer and shorter lock-up periods aren't unheard of.
- How long will the lock-up period be for Anthropic?
- For the purposes of this question, the lock-up period will be defined as the time period starting on the day of the IPO and ending on the day when Anthropic employees can sell stock (including shares that are in DAFs) that is collectively worth 5% of Anthropic's valuation.
- If Anthropic doesn't IPO by end of 2027, this question will resolve N/A.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
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- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.3pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be??
- Manifold Markets prices 4.5 months to 8.5 months at 35% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be? resolve?
- How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: After companies IPO, they typically have lock-up periods during which employees can't sell their stock.