Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 50.6%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 11:58 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.
- The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list).
- This market will be resolved as YES if there are 7 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2026 in the column "Closing Date".
- This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
- This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2027, there are fewer than 7 records with a "Closing Date" in 2026 on the "Failed Bank List".
- Author betting rules