Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 11:58 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?
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KalshiWill Canva’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRules
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.
- The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list).
- This market will be resolved as YES if there are 7 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2026 in the column "Closing Date".
- This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
- This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2027, there are fewer than 7 records with a "Closing Date" in 2026 on the "Failed Bank List".
- Author betting rules
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+2.5pt96%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $995.5K
- 24h Vol
- $795K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.0pt96%
- 65-89-29.9pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199+1.0pt19.8%
- 160-179+5.0pt18.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt16.8%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA-0.5pt79%
- Apple-0.6pt13%
- Alphabet7%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIIllinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- Above 87.5 TWh97%
- Above 92.5 TWh+3.0pt95%
- Above 90.0 TWh95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $137.5K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $220.5K
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- What will Chewy say during their next earnings call?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Chewy active customers in Q2
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2026? resolve?
- Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.