Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.3%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 2, 26, 12:00 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 9 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 7 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 8 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?
PolymarketUK Autumn Budget 2026: will taxes on banks be increased?
Manifold MarketsWhich banks will take Anthropic public?
KalshiRules
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.
- The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list).
- This market will be resolved as YES if there are 10 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2026 in the column "Closing Date".
- This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
- This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2027, there are fewer than 10 records with a "Closing Date" in 2026 on the "Failed Bank List".
- Author betting rules