Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?
GeopoliticsOne-OffAIMiddle EastTech2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 90.3%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJun 11, 26, 3:52 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027 (12:00 AM UTC), there is a confirmed physical bombing or explosive strike against a data center facility primarily dedicated to or publicly characterized as an AI data center.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- For the purposes of this market:
- "Bombing or explosive strike" is defined as a deliberate physical attack using kinetic ordnance containing explosives.
- This includes missiles, military bombs, artillery, explosive-laden suicide/kamikaze drones (such as Shahed drones), or improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
